Every conflict ends at the negotiating table. As former US President Kennedy stated beautifully: “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.” What a wise man United States once had for a president who managed to prevent a nuclear war by his and his Russian opponent’s willingness to negotiate. Negotiations are a two way street and all parties involved must be willing to participate in dialogue.
Ukraine, whose name was unfamiliar to many in the West until February 24th, 2022, suddenly became a pillar of freedom and democracy. Little did the citizens of the West know that a conflict had been raging for 8 years in the eastern part of the country. How would they know? Even Ukrainian government in Kiev has paid little attention to Donbass for years, as it has always been populated by predominantly ethnic Russians, whose views of independent and stable Ukraine outside of NATO, differed greatly from those living in the western parts of the country. Despite western parts of Ukraine overwhelmingly expressing desire to join NATO, especially now, according to many polls conducted over the years this number never reached more than half of the population across Ukraine. If there was never desire to join NATO or become hostile to neighbouring Russia, why then has the West been pushing the narrative over the years? Is weakening Russia so important that thousands of young Ukrainian men’s lives have become worthless?
China, which has become the voice of reason in the global arena, has called on all willing parties to support Russia and Ukraine in returning to the negotiating table. Since the confrontation could easily turn into a prolonged conflict, a conflict which is not causing Russia to collapse, as West predicted when they began imposing sanctions on individuals and entities in Russia, it is not in anyone’s interest to have the conflict go on for years. Russia can endure for a very long time, with vast resources, refocused production to meet the national needs, and despite being the most sanctioned country in the world history with 14,081 sanctions imposed by the West, it still continues to strengthen cooperation with the large majority of the world which is not represented by Washington. Therefore, as Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó pointed out “EU sanctions have not been able to stop the conflict in Ukraine. We have already introduced 10 sanctions packages and has this brought us closer to resolving the conflict? No. Did it bring Russia to its knees? No. Did it harm us? Yes.”
How many more Ukrainians will the Kiev regime line up for the western holy sacrifice before it realizes that it must negotiate a peace deal? When will these neoconservative money hungry vultures’ appetites be satisfied? Some analysts predict that the next few weeks will be decisive. Others are certain that the conflict will be over by the summer. Nikkei Asia reported recently of similar deadline, stating that the Academy of Military Sciences, which reports directly to the People’s Liberation Army and regularly issues recommendations, in December completed a simulation on the Ukrainian conflict and the results showed the conflict drawing to a close in the summer, with Russia having the upper hand. This simulation result reportedly paved a way for China’s Twelve Point Peace Plan (read full text here):
1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries: Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected.
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality: The security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others. The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs.
3. Ceasing hostilities: Conflict and war benefit no one.
4. Resuming peace talks: Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis: Humanitarian operations should follow the principles of neutrality and impartiality, and humanitarian issues should not be politicized.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs): Parties to the conflict should strictly abide by international humanitarian law, avoid attacking civilians or civilian facilities, protect women, children and other victims of the conflict, and respect the basic rights of POWs.
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe: China opposes armed attacks against nuclear power plants or other peaceful nuclear facilities, and calls on all parties to comply with international law including the Convention on Nuclear Safety (CNS) and resolutely avoid man-made nuclear accidents. China supports the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in playing a constructive role in promoting the safety and security of peaceful nuclear facilities.
8. Reducing strategic risks: Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.
9. Facilitating grain exports: All parties need to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed by Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine and the UN fully and effectively in a balanced manner.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions: Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable: All parties should earnestly maintain the existing world economic system and oppose using the world economy as a tool or weapon for political purposes.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction: The international community needs to take measures to support post-conflict reconstruction in conflict zones.
Prior to presenting this peace plan, China’s highest ranked diplomat, Mr. Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party met with Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Lavrov, and Russia’s President Putin. It is almost certain that the peace plan was touched upon and approved by President Putin. Ukraine’s President did not reject it initially either. Polish President, one who has been the loudest in cheering on the continuation of the conflict, also welcomed China’s initiative. After all, China is the largest trading partner of many European countries and it is therefore well positioned to act as a mediator in peace negotiations. Many European countries would have likely supported the plan as well in order to restore peace on the continent. However, Washington’s officials were very quick to reject it. Likely unaware of it, Washington’s demeaning behaviour toward President Xi Jinping’s proposal only made United States ruling elites’ fears and weaknesses even more evident.
To allow China to negotiate a peace deal would undermine US global dominance and that, in turn, would equal to a humiliating US defeat, similar to the one suffered by the United States in Afghanistan after 20 years of involvement and $2.3 trillion wasted. Yet, US is well aware that eventually this conflict will end at the negotiating table. The longer it goes on, the greater Ukraine’s losses will be-demographic, economic and territorial. Any settlement will have to accept some of the basic building blocks found in China’s proposal, including the fact that the four regions, which have largely voted on joining Russia, will remain as part of Russia. The status of the four regions is non-negotiable and Kremlin has made that clear. Since these regions have been neglected by Kiev for years, and their residents are predominantly ethnic Russians, Kiev will have to think about the future without them. “To negotiate is not to do as one likes,” Napoleon Bonaparte stated, understanding difficulty of negotiations, yet recognizing the need for them, especially when defeat is inevitable.
Whatever the outcome of the conflict may be, and contrary to the views of many that it will end this summer, rather I would argue that it will last for a while longer, let us hope that rational voices prevail and that the dying western empire does not resort to deadly actions without examining the consequences first. “Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness. The weapons of war must be abolished before they abolish us,” former US President Kennedy’s address before the General Assembly of the United Nations in September, 1961. Russia currently has the most confirmed nuclear weapons with 5997 nuclear warheads. The United States follows behind with 5428 nuclear weapons, hosted in the US and 5 other nations: Turkey, Italy, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Washington currently does not lack madness. It does, however, lack the ability to understand that a nuclear war would be disastrous to the entire world and so it continuously promotes the nuclear threat narrative. Therefore, let us hope that the United States embraces the multipolar world emerging and finds its own place in an order based on international laws, not rules made by Washington, and economic cooperation and trade, rather than dominance using whatever tools are at disposal, especially violent military interventions.