Hello an even more turbulent 2023! What a time to be alive and witness events unfold which are shaping the new world order emerging right before our eyes-an order that is more just, more equal and which will ensure beneficial development for all. Turbulent times lie ahead; quite a lot of hardship is predicted by some of the leading world economists but, nevertheless, the dust will settle eventually and prosperous times await, especially those states which have been deprived of reaching their full potential.
Throughout 2022, as events related to the conflict in Ukraine unfolded, some of the major myths became dismantled.
The myth that the international law exists has simply gone down the drain when the western allies, single-handedly and without majority support, decided to freeze assets of the Russian Federation. Despite these being assets of a state which is also a member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and many other international bodies, the West undertook the role of a global policeman and without absolutely any valid legal basis froze Russia’s assets and it continues to seek ways to utilize them in rebuilding Ukraine. In addition, sabotaging a gas pipeline in the territorial waters of a sovereign state and not being held responsible, only proves that the international legal frameworks are as valuable as the piece of paper they are written on. What we once knew as the international law, has become a child’s play, and the bully unilaterally exerts power over others as deemed profitable for solely its own benefit.
The myth of democracy and state sovereignty has become a thing of the past and the European states serve as perfect examples. Apart from Hungary, a member of the European Union, and Serbia, all other European states have proven uncapable of leading independent and sovereign politics. It is one thing to send a small number of troops to participate in a US-led war a world over in the name of “freedom and democracy”, but it is something completely different to blindly and unconditionally support continuation of a conflict which is destroying European economies. Faced with threats of blackouts, de-industrialization, absence of key energy products and yet continued support to further escalate the conflict, while purchasing energy products from the US at up to 10 times the cost they were purchased at from Russia, only confirms that Europe is made up of many vassal states without a voice. The concerning part is that these vassal states know very well that they are headed down the path of destruction and that the upcoming period will be very painful and filled with a lot of social unrest, but they fail to undertake any policies contradictory to the instructions coming from Washington.
The myth of freedom in general, and more specifically freedom of the press, have proven to be myths only, or even blatant lies, which have only been used over time to construct a narrative which would differentiate between the “civilized” West and the “barbaric” (controlled, oppressed, etc.) East. If there was such a thing as freedom of the press, Assange would be at home currently and not in a prison cell. Citizens of the West would have access to Russian news, such as Russia Today, and they would be able to obtain information related to the conflict in Ukraine from both sides. However, that would threaten the entire narrative, and since propaganda remains Zelensky’s main weapon, any threat to it would be a direct threat to Zelensky’s current position. Recently released Twitter files additionally confirm that various forces, including the intelligence services, have controlled and manipulated (and continue to do so) the information space to suit Washington’s narrative.
Simple advice: question everything. Do not allow to be fooled by the stories that the West has frozen billions dollars worth of Russian assets which they will use down the road for Ukraine’s reconstruction. They have frozen these assets on paper, however out of the $300 billion frozen, they have no idea where over $200 billion are. As other leading powers see such unilateral, illegal acts being undertaken by a single entity, guess what they will do with their assets? They certainly will not be handing them over to Washington as there will always be a looming threat that at the smallest concern, Washington could decide to freeze these assets. Do not allow yourself to be fooled by the stories that Ukraine is defending you and your values, because Russian forces are not headed toward Berlin, London, Washington, etc. The values you are led to believe that Ukraine is defending, are actually the values being suppressed in Ukraine: opposition party ban; ban of Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate); media ban just signed yesterday by Ukraine’s President; imprisonment of so-called “collaborators” (people, such as teachers for example, who chose to continue working in their respective roles in areas held by Russian forces).
So, 2022 was one turbulent year, but what does 2023 have in store? Unfortunately, much more turbulence. The outlook shared by many leading world economists is fairly gloomy. Inflation will continue to rise as energy resources become even more scarce than they currently are in the West. If the thought was shared a year ago that Covid related policies had a severely negative impact on supply chains, than just imagine what 2023 and going into 2024 will look like! My personal belief is that 2023 will be marked with three things which are of significant importance to the global order: continued conflict in Ukraine for most of 2023 is highly likely; accelerated de-industrialization of Europe; and possibly heightened tensions in Caucasus region, along with Iran.
Continued conflict in Ukraine throughout 2023 is highly likely, even though this is simply a prediction based on available resources, because the West is not ready for peace yet. The Military Industrial Complex has benefited greatly from this conflict and recently approved $1.7 trillion US budget contains a $45 billion support for Ukraine, of which over $11 billion are to be used for replenishment of US’ own weapons stocks which were previously handed over to Ukraine. De-industrialization of Europe will be accelerated in 2023 as gas storages become empty and corruption scandals continue to reduce possibility of cooperation with other exporters of gas other than Russia. From rise of petty theft in Poland, to fear of blackouts in France, or fear of hunger and lack of shelter in UK, or threat of job loss in Germany as the number of unemployed in November reached 17,000 rather than 13,500 predicted initially, all are markers of economies that are crumbling. Without energy products, firms are faced with two options: bankruptcy or relocation. Relocation to where? Well, Washington has been doing a wonderful job at luring European companies into the United States with various tax incentives and affordable energy.
Will other conflict arise as a result of heightened tensions? Will Poland join the fight against Russia? Will tensions escalate between the United States and China? Will Israel and Iran enter a violent conflict? Or will things begin to settle? There are many things to watch as 2023 rolls in which will affect the entire world. And things will certainly get much worse before they begin getting better.
In the meantime, stay safe and enjoy the little things that life has to offer. Happy and prosperous New Year to all!