Geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly right before our eyes. The power is shifting and what were once known as advanced, industrialized economies are now struggling to survive rising energy costs, which are resulting in closure of business in several sectors, and internal turmoil caused by the inability of people to cope with the cost of living resulting from the mindless policies of their governments.
As the summer months are coming to an end, fearful of the negative impact a cessation in Russian gas supply will have on their lives, Europeans across the continent have been organizing mass protests. Just last weekend Prague was flooded with over 70,000 people demanding resignation of the current government, supply halt of weapons to Ukraine and return of normalized supply of gas from Russia. Similar protests flooded many German cities, along with cities of France, Italy and Austria.
Recently a group called “Action Solidarity” entered the Nord Stream 2 site near Lubmin, Germany, to connect the gas pipeline manually, requesting the government to ensure a steady supply of Russian gas through the pipeline and stating that “the suicide sanctions are plunging Europe into misery.”
Steel plants are closing throughout Europe, as well as fertilizer producing plants, negatively impacting the supply of food, along with numerous smaller businesses which are not able to cope with the rise in operational costs due to over 500% energy cost increase. Some states, such as Switzerland, took the issue a step further limiting indoor temperature to 19C in the winter. Swiss Blick recently wrote about a proposed law which would fine anyone caught increasing temperature in their home/business above 19C with 3,000 Francs or up to 3 years in jail. Can you imagine being jailed for heating your home?! This is the freedom and democracy they refer to when they sign off on another multibillion dollar support to Ukraine.
While Europe is struggling and overwhelmed with a wide spectrum of issues, Russia has continued to strengthen its relations with the rest of the world. In addition to organizing Vostok 2022 military exercises in cooperation with China and India, it has also organized an Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) 2022 in Vladivostok, the Far East, which proved to be another great success at strengthening relations with multiple partners. The Forum was attended by 5900 participants from 60 countries and territories, and investment agreements totaling 3.2 trillion Rubles were signed. What made the Forum even more important was attendance by Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, making him the most senior official to leave China since Covid started in 2020. With his attendance, the importance of strong relations between the two countries was reiterated. Last year trade between Russia and China grew by 36% and reached $140 billion, while this year it has grown 30% in the first 6 months of 2022 and will soon reach the set target goal of $200 billion.
EEF paved a path to a high profile Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, which will take place in Uzbekistan between September 15-16, 2022. The SCO meeting will be attended by all eight leaders: Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and it will be a first in person meeting of SCO leadership since 2019. This year’s SCO meeting is of great importance as Iran, currently an observer state at SCO, will sign a memorandum of obligation at the summit to become a full-fledged member, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt will become dialogue partners, joining Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal and Sri Lanka in their roles. Reportedly, the United Arab Emirates want to join the SCO as a full member, while Syria, Iraq, Israel, Bangladesh and Vietnam are hoping to join as dialogue partners or observers.
That the relations of a number of independent and sovereign states have been strengthened for mutual benefit confirms the fact that when G7 nations introduced a price cap on Russian oil recently, OPEC+ made a decision to reduce output of oil by 100,000 barrels per day. Although 100,000 barrels per day may not seem much for such a large global market, but it is more than enough to rock the economy and cause turmoil. During the same time, G7 member states have attempted to lure India, one of the largest importers of Russian oil, to impose a price cap on the product, which India refused to do, focusing on strengthening its own economy and its presence in the Indo-Pacific region, while enhancing cooperation with its Eurasian partners through participation in various initiatives organized through EEF, SCO, BRICS. As relations of these countries become more intertwined, their national currencies become more important in mutual trade, therefore bypassing the US Dollar and in turn negatively affecting it.
While the Western states scramble to create a unified response to the conflict in Ukraine, along with attempting to respond to internal unrest and government resignations, the Eastern states continue to strengthen their partnership and work hard on developing a respectful, thriving, multipolar world which will benefit all involved. So far, out of the 87 ships carrying grain out of Ukraine, only 2 have reached African nations, even though the blame of Russia causing famine across the globe was so great before the grain deal was reached. Ukraine’s president also promised to feed Africa. What happened? The grain seems to be feeding Western countries predominantly and that does not align with the UN brokered grain deal. Should the export of grain through the Black Sea be brought to a halt in this case as Ukraine, once again, does not adhere to the agreement?
The notion of colonialism never left the West, where the only thing that mattered was their own gain. Therefore, SCO this year carries utmost importance as it opens its doors to major leaders in the Middle Eastern region, while EU has never been less united. The SCO this year will likely carry an important message to the collective West: Together We Stand and the harder you try to destroy our nations, more united our response will be.