Had They Just Listened

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Had They Just Listened

Geopolitical power in the world is shifting before our eyes and a new multipolar order is emerging, where the United States’ hegemony is at risk more than ever before. The Western officials and academics are beginning to realize now the important place Russia holds in the global arena. While this thought is slowly emerging, the West is finding it difficult to admit and even more difficult to present to the world that their plan of using Ukraine to weaken Russia is failing.

The Western powers have intervened in Ukraine for decades, since its independence, providing it with weapons and military training all with a single aim – to weaken Russia, and in turn contain China whose Belt and Road Initiative incorporated Ukraine among the first few states. Was there a need to weaken Russia? Many realists believe that cooperation would have been more profitable and that it would have yielded better results. The failed plan to weaken Russia has only weakened the Western economies. Citizens of the United States are faced with 8.6% inflation recorded in May, highest since 1981. Remainder of the Western countries are facing similar outcomes as a result of imposing sanctions on Russia. Some businesses, realizing the size of the Russian market, are already confirming their plans to return toward the end of the summer as their losses cannot be compensated in the markets faced with such high inflation, where citizens are struggling to meet some of the basic needs. President Biden finds himself in a very difficult situation amid rising costs, which could turn the country into the new Ecuador, which has been experiencing extremely violent protests over the recent days organized against the government and rising living costs.

As Hungarian Prime Minister recently stated in an interview for a Hungarian radio station that he did not care about Ukraine or the United States as he was a citizen of Hungary and that the well being of Hungarians was his primary concern, it confirms that he seems to be one of the few who had listened to President Putin and his speeches. President Putin is a very predictable man. He does not say things just to have something said. He says things which he means and hopefully by now the world has realized that he is to be taken seriously, which is exactly what the West failed to do in 2007 when he spoke about NATO expansion eastward at a conference in Munich. All one really has to do is listen to his speeches which have always clearly indicated Russia’s concerns and willingness to peacefully cooperate with the West. It is a pity that very few did so.

As a result of not listening and continuous threats with sanctions against Russia and its citizens, Germany is faced with high inflation and reduced gas flow through the existing Nord Stream pipeline. The immediate effect of this was a 13% increase in the price of gas right the morning of the announcement. Bulgaria, whose gas flow was turned off by Gazprom due to refusal to pay for gas in Rubles, is struggling to find replacement for Russia’s gas. Promises of support by the United States to supply Bulgaria with liquified natural gas (LNG) at a cheaper cost than that from Russia have not been fulfilled yet. There are no short term or long term LNG contracts with the United States yet and the cheaper cost promised seems to be actually higher. This has caused internal government turmoil in Bulgaria, coupled with a number of other issues, which may lead to a very cold and difficult winter in the country whose storage of gas is quite lower than that of other countries, sitting at only about 28%.

Poland’s politics of being Ukraine’s savior with accepting millions of refugees throughout the past couple of months and being very loud in condemning Russia for the special military operation are starting to fall apart. The support for refugees is decreasing and the state has officially announced that as of July 1st it will stop payments to families who have hosted Ukrainian refugees in order to encourage Ukrainians to become more independent, as many were living simply off social assistance provided by Poland. However, as Poland calls to the West to supply Ukraine with nuclear weapons in order to defend its territory, at the same time its trade with Russia has increased by over 100% in the first four months of 2022 compared to the same time period in 2021. Poland’s imports from Russia amounted to 19.1 billion PLN in the period from January to April, 2021 increasing to 38.9 billion PLN in the same period of 2022 making Russia Poland’s third largest trading partner after Germany and China. The country still continues to struggle with energy products and PL Gazeta reported that the state began issuing permits for people to collect firewood for the upcoming winter which may prove to be difficult due to lack of regular gas imports. As the economic turmoil tightens its grip on ordinary citizens, support for the Western war-fueling policies will decrease significantly. Polls are already indicating a shift in opinion among Western European citizens who just last month waved their blue and yellow flags, but today they are stating that Ukraine should do whatever is necessary to end the conflict, even if it includes giving up territories in the east of the country.

Had they all simply listened to President Putin’s speeches, the conflict could have been avoided. Territorial secessions would not be required. Eastern part of Ukraine, which has been targeted by Ukrainian forces for 8 years now, has been filling Kiev’s budget for decades with its coal mining and steel industries, with Donetsk accounting for 19.7% and Lugansk 5.7% of Ukraine’s exports. These territories did not seek independence but only autonomy where they would be allowed to use Russian as the official language and organize their administration accordingly. Yet, Zelensky failed to fulfill the promise of ending the war, based on which he won the election with great support. External factions meddled greatly in these affairs and are now faced with paying the price. It is unfortunate that the ordinary citizens are being affected the most by these geopolitical games and it is unfortunate that people are allowing their governments to lead them down these paths of destructions while pouring more taxpayer money into a conflict that Ukraine simply is not capable of winning.