Which is really at stake, being fought in Ukraine, by the Western weapons? How many really fell for the story that the West is providing such an enormous support because it cares about Ukrainians? Many, I am sure. Yet, if asked to point at an Eurasia map, many of those waving blue and yellow flags likely could not identify the borders of Ukraine. This is mainly because Ukraine was not at the center of media’s attention over the years, even though the war has been happening since 2014 in Eastern Ukraine. Lives of ethnic Russians are not important, thus the lack of media coverage. But, has the US involvement in Ukraine over the years really been about containing Russia?

Since gaining its independence in 1991, Ukraine began with many reforms. In the turmoil of arising from the ruins of the Soviet Union, whose disintegration paved the path for many of its former republics to gain independence, Western states sought to gain influence at a very cheap cost. They started pouring money into Ukraine, delivering arms and military training, all in hope of establishing a very stronghold in the country which would be a deterrent to Russia should it ever become a superpower again. With time, Russia did become a superpower, but so did China. While the two countries did not always enjoy strong relations and competed with one another in exerting their influence in the region, they eventually came together and formed a strong cooperative relationship for the mutual benefit.

China has become Russia’s major trading partner. The trade between the two accounted for over 140 billion US dollars in 2021 and it has only increased since the beginning of this year as the two countries began trading in their national currencies, bypassing the US dollar. Some of the biggest exports to China from Russia include coal, oil, natural gas and agricultural products. Note that these are all the products the West has sanctioned, or rather that the US has led European Union to sanction, yet US remains the largest buyer of Russian oil! How about the fact that the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury removed Russian mineral fertilizers from possible sanctions, including it in the list of vital products, while European farmers are about to loose this season’s crop because of sanctions?! According to these moves made by the US, European Union has to impose sanctions on Russian gas, oil, agricultural goods and many other things which are all of vital importance to many European countries, yet US allows itself to import these freely. What does this tell you?

The United States not only needs a weakened Russia, but it also needs a weak Europe, whose infrastructure and resources can be exploited at a cheap cost to counter China’s influence. Russia has become a very important partner to China in its new Belt and Road Initiative, which was started in 2013. It is the most ambitious project encompassing telecommunications, infrastructure, economy, trade and many other aspects of cooperation between states. As you can see on the map below, the Belt and Road Initiative stretches from China throughout Asia and Africa, reaching Europe as the final destination. The commitment to the project is about 1 trillion US dollars and large amounts have already been contributed to a number of countries in the Africa-Eurasia region to improve infrastructure, which would in turn ensure improved trade routes to Western Europe. Although US was at one point invited to join the initiative, it declined, yet the project has become the biggest nightmare of the United States. “Whoever rules the Eurasia, controls the world,” as stated in Mackinder’s heartland theory, just became a little bit more relevant with the Belt and Road Initiative.

China’s investments into Ukraine, which was one of the first countries to join the Belt and Road Initiative, amount to billions of dollars. The trade between the two countries amounted to over 19 billion US dollars in 2021, increasing by almost 30 percent from the previous year, making China Ukraine’s largest trading partner. Ukraine has replaced US as the largest exporter of corn to China and it is among the top three suppliers of weapons to China, along with Russia and France. According to Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China’s PowerChina signed a contract with Ukrainian firm WindFarm in 2020 to build a wind farm in Eastern Ukraine worth 1 billion USD, where the conflict has been raging since 2014. China Railway International Group and Pacific Construction Group also have an investment in Kiev to build an underground railway line. China’s COFCO Group has also built a 75 million USD grain and oil transfer terminal at the Mykolaiv port on the Black Sea. Upgrading of the busiest international port in Ukraine near Odesa, Yuzhny port, was also funded by China. Just in part of last year, Chinese companies have signed contracts of approximately 6.5 billion USD with Ukraine, which has great potential with its oil reserves and in the solar energy sector. China has also imprinted a significant mark on Ukraine in terms of digital transformation and telecommunications with Huawei. Even Germany’s telekom is heavily dependent on Huawei’s technology!

Reflecting on the previously described handful of investments by China into Ukraine, out of many more which are not listed, one could certainly draw a conclusion that US’ biggest threat is China. In response to China’s expansion, many initiatives arose, led by US and European Union, such as the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, whose aim is to meet infrastructure needs of low and middle-income countries. However, in terms of funding, the US led initiative of the G7 countries cannot compare with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Indebted significantly, there is not nearly as much funding available through the B3W initiative. De-dollarization process has also crippled Western economies and it will only get worse before it gets better. The outlook for European Union is not very bright either due to its heavy reliance on Russia’s resources and investments of European Union’s largest trading partner, China, which overtook the spot from the US. The rate at which European Union’s largest economy, Germany, is spiraling downward seems to be taking Germany into 2023 in similar ways the country entered 1923, when Deutsche Mark was used for kite-making and toilet paper due to hyperinflation.

What will the end outcome be of the current situation? Will European Union realize that they are committing suicide in following orders of US, just to keep US hegemony alive? Judging by the current geopolitical and economic situation, the Western hemisphere will experience a sharp economic decline before a multipolar world emerges. It only remains to be seen whether London and Washington will accept an equal and fair playing field and whether they will be able to cooperate with others on truly building back better for the benefit of all parties involved.